Thursday, February 10, 2011

Few revenues overvalued but there is a new bubble for the web?

There is a new bubble around the corner for the web? In asking this question is the Wall Street Journal, which brings together some of the latest issues related to the digital economy: Huffington Post sold to AOL for $ 315 million, Facebook valued 50 billion investment in Goldman Sachs and Twitter whose value is now estimated between 8 and 10 billion.

In the same article which emphasizes the never-dormant interest in Google and Facebook to get your Twitter, the financial newspaper back on a topic now on the agenda in the field of blogs and magazines: the fear of a new bubble. After the excitement of the '90s and the disappointment of 2000, with the collapse of the Nasdaq bubble and the explosion of the first dot.

Com "in recent years confidence in technology companies has grown and also investment , at least in Silicon Valley, have started to be consistent. Companies have emerged in recent years, with few employees, a huge base of users but with reduced income or even none at all, are enlivening the market valuations of shots and billionaire offers to buy ten digits.

Doubts arise, however, are now linked to the real value of these companies, beyond the proposed acquisition of Star. The barometer used by the WSJ is just Twitter. The microblogging service has two hundred million registered users, is known globally for its use in the recent riots in Africa and Asia, but the voice revenue in 2010 would mark only $ 45 million for advertising, partly because of heavy investment in servers and tools.

From the sources quoted in the press (Twitter is not a listed company) in 2011 would seem that the blue bird site accounts to just over 100 million dollars in revenues, just a penny of its most recent assessment. In the last round of funding from venture capitalists gathered last December, the site had been reviewed but less than $ 4 billion.

Its "price" would then more than doubled in just two months, a trend certainly not normal. Something similar to that of Twitter you can do with the Huffington Post, just pointed out by AOL for $ 315 million, but able to generate in a year but not more than $ 30 million thanks to advertising.

If the value of these companies is not in their current income, then you have to be found in the data on their users, especially when it comes to social networking sites like Twitter, Facebook or LinkedIn (who announced his arrival on the stock exchange within the ' year). Data that are worth a fortune for the advertising market on which the economy is based largely on the network.

In the light of the final evaluation, each user on Twitter (true or false) that is between 40 and $ 50 (in December were $ 21), compared to $ 100 per person on Facebook and LinkedIn for about $ 30 on their estimated the basis of its landing on the stock exchange (hence the "list" of last December's account made by the Republic).

The figures which can be drawn from evaluations of the few venture capitalists and financial data disseminated by the companies change every month, also due to the nature of these private companies. If at the time of the first bubble all the dot. com were held to raise money, now prefer to wait for their price and the trading down on so-called "secondary markets" where employees sell their shares to investors more adventurous: as Sharespost sites.

com or SecondMarket. com for years are the real stock market for the sector. But it remains to see who could invest in a company that does not generate profit and the shares of which cost much. The Wall Street Journal, citing sources within Twitter, indicates the intention of the microblogging site to create a business worth hundreds of billions of dollars.

An incredible figure at the time, unless the equation does not fit an external agent: Google. The ruler of the search engine and online advertising market has repeatedly tried to get my hands on Twitter after repeated failures in the field of social networks: Orkut known only in Brazil, the flop of Buzz, the purchase of a clone of Twitter, Jaiku in 2007 (closed in 2009), the acquisition of Dodgeball and its closure (which kicked off the success of Foursquare).

The expected recovery in the social network for Google, Google Me with the project, you may need a solid foundation as Twitter, the only major company in sales that would regain ground on Facebook. Many blogs and industry analysts tweet advocate precisely the assumption that the game is rising between Facebook and Google to fuel the bubble in recent months: and between the two giants who fight, who enjoys Twitter is overvalued.

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